As home furnishings retailers and manufacturers plan for the year ahead, there’s cautious optimism on the horizon. According to the National Retail Federation’s (NRF) latest 2025 Retail Outlook forecast, retail sales in 2025 are expected to grow between 2.7% and 3.7% over 2024, totaling between $5.42 trillion and $5.48 trillion.
The announcement came during NRF’s State of Retail & the Consumer virtual event, painting a picture of an economy still moving forward — bolstered by low unemployment and real wage gains — even as policy uncertainty and inflation concerns challenge consumer and business confidence.
“Overall, the economy has shown continued momentum so far in 2025 — bolstered by low unemployment and real wage gains — however, significant policy uncertainty is weighing on consumer and business confidence,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay.
For home furnishings businesses, the message is clear: consumers are still spending, but businesses must stay sharp, innovative, and responsive to shifting expectations.
Online and Non-Store Growth Continues to Accelerate
One of the biggest takeaways for 2025 is the ongoing surge in non-store and online sales, which are expected to grow between 7% and 9% year over year, potentially reaching $1.6 trillion.
For home furnishings retailers, this underscores the importance of having a strong digital presence — from offering seamless online shopping to integrating omnichannel experiences that connect your showroom with your website and social platforms.
A Consumer-Driven Economy, Even in Uncertain Times
While overall growth is expected to slow slightly compared to the 3.6% increase in 2024, NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz stressed that consumer spending remains resilient:
“Any way you look at it, a lot is riding on the consumer. While we expect slower growth, consumer fundamentals remain intact, supported by low unemployment, slower but steady income growth, and solid household finances.”
Kleinhenz added that despite softening consumer confidence — fueled by lingering inflation and tariff concerns — there’s no immediate sign of a major spending pullback, especially with household balance sheets remaining relatively healthy and employment steady.
What This Means for Home Furnishings Retailers
The NRF’s 2025 retail outlook highlights both opportunities and challenges for retailers and manufacturers in the home furnishings industry. Now is the time to:
Focus on Customer Experience- Whether online or in-store, consumers are still spending — and your ability to meet their needs, offer flexibility, and create value will be critical to maintaining sales momentum.
Be Proactive About Policy Shifts- With tariffs and economic policy shifts playing a growing role in shaping prices and consumer behavior, smart sourcing, inventory management, and transparent communication will be more important than ever.
Embrace Digital Growth – The continued strength of non-store sales offers an excellent opportunity for home furnishings businesses to expand reach through ecommerce platforms, social commerce, and digital advertising strategies.
Keep an Eye on Fundamentals- While consumer sentiment may shift, underlying economic indicators — such as employment, income, and credit health — are still the strongest predictors of spending.
Stay Ahead of Industry Shifts: Upcoming HFA Webinar
Want deeper insights into what the future holds for the home furnishings industry? Don’t miss the Home Furnishings Association’s exclusive webinar, The Future of Home Furnishings Retail, with Todd Wanek.
Join Todd Wanek, President and CEO of Ashley Furniture Industries, as he shares his vision for the future of home furnishings 2025 retail outlook — from market trends and shifting consumer behaviors to the innovations that will shape tomorrow’s retail landscape.
At the Home Furnishings Association, we understand the complexities and opportunities facing retailers and manufacturers in this dynamic market. As 2025 unfolds, we’ll continue to monitor the data, advocate for your interests, and share insights to help you stay ahead.
Stay tuned for more updates, resources, and peer discussions designed to help your business grow.
