Few leaders are as pivotal or outspoken in a transformative era for home furnishings as Todd Wanek, President and CEO of Ashley Furniture Industries. As the 2025 Trailblazer Award recipient from the Home Furnishings Association (HFA), Wanek recently joined HFA to share his perspective on the furniture industry’s current state and future trajectory. In a lively conversation facilitated by Shannon Williams, HFA’s CEO, Todd delved deep into resilience, supply chain upheavals, tariffs, technological innovation, and how retailers should position themselves amid uncertainty.
Tariffs and Trade: Reading the Global Tea Leaves
One of the burning issues on every retailer’s mind is tariffs and their wide-reaching impacts. Williams opened the discussion on tariffs, and Todd Wanek quickly contextualized the “noise” surrounding global trade policy. He pointed to the 2024 U.S. presidential race and rhetoric leading up to it as a key indicator: “If this caught you by surprise, you weren’t paying attention,” Wanek cautioned. He cited former President Trump’s intention to increase tariffs by $750 billion and advised businesses to focus on what they can control.
Ashley Furniture’s response? Proactive diversification. Wanek revealed that Ashley had ceased business with mainland China as of April 1st, acknowledging that the risks had become too great. “We read the tea leaves early,” Wanek said. “It’s every leader’s responsibility to see things before others see them and make the necessary changes.”
He predicted the U.S. would see average tariff rates of around 10–25%, though not uniformly applied. Diversification, especially away from single-country sourcing, is the watchword for contemporary supply chains.
Diversification: The Antidote to Uncertainty
Wanek repeatedly returned to the theme of diversification in sourcing and manufacturing—not just internationally but within the U.S. He warned against putting all eggs in one basket, particularly after witnessing so many organizations suffer for their reliance on singular supply chains during the COVID shockwaves and tariff changes. “Ashley’s always had a diversified supply chain; everyone needs to be thinking about it,” he urged.
Wanek noted that countries like Vietnam, Cambodia, and Malaysia remain key for categories like dining tables and bedroom furniture. Still, there is no clear “winner” benefitting from the new tariff terrain. Instead, the focus should be on spreading risk, reshoring where possible, and investing in domestic automation to remain globally competitive.
Economic Outlook: Relative Flatness, Not Crisis
As speculation swirled around recession risks, Wanek took a measured stance. Recessions, he clarified, are technical—a couple of quarters of negative or near-zero growth. “I don’t see anything like 2008 or 2009,” Wanek reassured listeners. While 2025 might be bumpy, he predicted relative flatness, not collapse, with the potential for stimulus-driven growth in 2025 and beyond.
For retailers, this means focusing sharply on the levers within their control—operating with excellence, urgency, and efficiency—and not reacting blindly to headlines. “Circle of concern versus circle of control,” Wanek echoed Stephen Covey’s famed advice.
Reshoring and Automation: The Real Cost-Benefit Equation
Given Ashley’s aggressive moves back to U.S. production, many wanted to know: Can American manufacturing really compete against low-cost international rivals? Wanek didn’t sugarcoat the challenge—sourcing labor in the U.S. at $25/hour versus $2/hour in Vietnam is only viable with heavy automation.
The key, he said, is leveraging technology—robotics, AI-driven scheduling, and process optimization—to drive U.S.-based plants toward global competitiveness. “It’s only with automation and efficiency that furniture comes back sustainably,” he argued. Companies must be wary of investing in reshoring if those investments lack the resilience to withstand political reversals or administrative shifts.
Not every category is readily repatriated. Finished case goods and intricate veneer work remain particularly tough to re-establish domestically at scale. Where reshoring is pursued, it’s best paired with long-term vision and technological investment.
The Container Crisis: The Real Supply Chain Challenge
Tariffs are just one disruption; Wanek identified container capacity as the most acute supply chain problem facing furniture now. With cascading cancellations (“blank sailings”), containers marooned in origin ports, and wild price swings ($1,650 to 5,500 per container within months), predictable logistics have vanished.
Ashley’s response? Ramping up buffer inventory—holding up to one month more on hand than pre-pandemic levels—and ensuring multiple sourcing and shipping options are always alive and viable. “Option one, two, and three need to be available,” Wanek stated.
For retailers, he advised partnering with vendors capable of holding safety stock, adding: “Supply chain stability is paramount.”
Other Global Risks: Section 301, 232, and the De Minimis Endgame
Wanek pointed to a growing web of global economic hazards beyond simple headline tariffs, including Section 301 (targeting Chinese-built ships with hefty taxes) and Section 232 (duties based on wood and steel content). He cautioned retailers to keep these in their “circle of concern,” but not overcorrect—many of these measures may fluctuate or be reversed. The loss of “de minimis” (duty-free shipment below $800) will change eCommerce competition, routing more DTC business back to brick-and-mortar.
The insights of Todd Wanek reflect a deep understanding of the global forces shaping home furnishings retail and a clear view of how businesses can navigate complexity with agility, foresight, and technological investment. As retailers face mounting uncertainty—from trade policies to supply chain disruptions—Wanek’s message is both cautionary and empowering: focus on what you can control, diversify your operations, and leverage innovation to stay competitive.
But that’s only part of the story.
In part two of our conversation with Todd Wanek, we’ll explore the future: where the growth opportunities lie, the practical advice he offers retailers on thriving amid disruption, and the top three challenges he believes retailers must overcome to succeed in today’s volatile market.
